POLL -- What effect will the rise of ISIS have on the Iraqi dinar?

Isis is no smoke, it is real enough .... the RV will happen ... in time, but not in the immediate future.

I will stay out of the Rv for this posting, I will say this...  "ISIS" as it's called is NOT out away from the plan.  The "plan" to split the area of Iraq into 3 is well underway and has been "planned" for just over 90, yes 90 years. I have read quite a bit about it being so. Some of the readings had Presidents, and other very high government officials words in quote, LOL NO I DIDN'T GET SOME GURU BULL EITHER, before that is said.   When this dust settles, (fairly quickly from this point forward, Iran, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia ALL along with Iraq are to have substantial border changes. A literal remapping if you will is underway as we speak.  This is the very reason the entire world has little to nothing to say about all of it.  The Lame stream media is different, they have got to have something to sensationalize and hammer against (mostly) conservative base. 
Ok already said enough. Talk soon. Just keep mind and  eyes open.

229 views and 32 votes so far.  I think most people have no idea what to think anymore since most have  not selected a poll choice.

I still think some amount of RV will happen. Not anytime soon. Isis is very real and I feel at some point we will have no choice but to take them on. I believe they shall bring death to our land in some form. At that point I feel America will have no choice but to take a hundred eyes for an eye.

Isis is ( VERY REAL) imo when Iraq can prove to the world that they are secure, no more Isis and things clam down with security , Iraq will have the world banging down there door steps for rebuilding and the Forex will be hot with the dinars true value over time

IMO, until it can be confirmed without a shadow of a doubt that either ISIS did not take $485MM IQD and other national bills from the bank in Mosul or it can be confirmed that the bills have been recovered or destroyed, there will be no RV. I suppose it is possible that all the serial numbers are known and those would be checked and not exchangeable/cashable, but it will take a very long time to determine that.

A good, valid point and I agree. IMO, our best chance is that the serial numbers are at least mostly known since they were taken directly from bank vaults. I'm no banker, but I assume that records are kept of that.

ISIS is a very real threat and continues to advance.  They have now taken Abu Garhib outside of Baghdad.  This puts them literally within artillery range of Baghdad.  Additionally, they are doubling down on the Syrian border and will likely take Kobane within this next week.  Other lines of advance have them within 2 miles of Baghdad.

And three sorties were flowing against ISIS yesterday.  Three.  Hardly substantial enough to turn a battle much less an insurgency.

It is doubtful at best that the bankers recorded serial numbers of the bills in their vaults.  Just too much time and effort required.  And just for giggles, if they did, the records would be within the bank that was overtaken anyway.  

Those bills are in ISIS' hands and are indistinguishable from the dinar serial numbers on the bills any of us hold.  That's a big big problem.  Revalue now and you make ISIS that much more wealthy.

My fear, and the most logical outcome is for the CBI to issue new notes for exchange in country and effectively erase the value of the currently circulated notes.  And by doing so, they would accomplish both a negation of the holdings ISIS has, and ultimately reduce the number of notes floating around.

Unfortunately for us, we probably wouldn't be able to go over and exchange current dinar for new style dinar and would likely lose our complete investment.

And yes, I fully believe that the dinar will someday rise in value. It pretty much has to.  Someday.

Hopefully, there will be a way for us to exchange the notes we have for the new ones and can be a part of the wealth distribution when it happens.

@cascadian - Well that's not what I wanted to hear!!! I thought someone would say "Oh, don't worry about that. They will be going ahead with the RV anyway. BTW, it's happening this Monday!" - KIDDING!

Anyway...I wonder how much an average Iraqi family holds in Iraq. 1,000,000 IQD? If that was the average, all ISIS would have to do is hold 485 families hostage while the husband takes an ISIS old million IQD to exchange for new and they'd still have their half billion. That's not really a lot of mules considering there are a reported 31,000 ISIS. Doesn't seem to be an easy way to get through an RV.

It wasn't what I wanted to say either.  I hope I am not right.  I don't want to be right.  I need things to prove that I am not right.

But at the end and looking at the situation, I have a sinking feeling about this.

I was actually thinking more along the line of the CBI having the records, not the banks themselves, although it would be easy enough for either since the new notes probably come in serial order.

ISIL is a very real and serious threat. To date they have not had a ton of success holding the ground they have taken, but if our campaigner in chief does not get serious soon that may be a moot point. He pulled us out too fast and too soon, ostensibly because we could not get the needed agreements to remain, but more and more former members are coming out stating we never really tried.

As to Iraqi's holding dinar, they are lucky if they have any left at the end of the week. The average USD equivalent income there is about 5K/yr. I did a cost of living analysis a year or so ago, and that will just about keep a roof over their heads and some food in their bellies. (The figues are in a post on here someplace.) The average Iraqi citizen can barely survive, forget about saving.

As far as troops on the ground ("boots on the ground" is way overused and should be banned from the nightly news reports), I believe they are necessary but I see translated articles that some in Iraq Parliament are very much against US on their soil. They want the air support/bombings but no soldiers. Is it only a few in Parliament that are against it or many?

Good question, but the reality is we already have ground troops in theater, some embedded with Iraqi forces, and no doubt spec ops teams inside ISIS held territories observing/targeting for our jets. In addition we will have at least 30K on a base within Iraq soon, plus choppers and A-10s operating out of forward posts soon afterwards.

The reality is that from everything I have read we could have had the necessary status of forces agreements before we ever pulled out if BHO had wanted them, so I do not think there is too much opposition. A few like Allawi, but he has always hated us.

Looks like ISIS has captured a strategic hill on the outskirts of Kobani, and insurgents are now starting to enter the city.  This according to CNN.

Meanwhile the Bomb Damage Assessment from the past 24 hours has the coalition destroying 6 fighting positions, 2 armored vehicles, and believe it or not, a bulldozer owned by ISIS.  That according to defense.gov.

Germany has taken 32 Free Syria Army fighters back to Germany to train them how to fight.  

The timeline for the coalition to train up and equip fighters against ISIS is still being described in years.

According to a War News Update repost of an article, sources familiar with the situation have detected a change in ISIS behavior which is making targeting them more difficult.  Since we started bombing them, they have started to hide.  (Duh)  This makes it more difficult to know where to put the bombs.

Not kidding about any of this.  You will forgive me for not being overly hopeful at the hopium that is being spread around that indicates ISIS is being contained.

I have never bought that hopium ... while there has been some progress, there have also been losses. ISIL is and remains a vicious, barbarous, and dangerous organization. Our administration has not taken them seriously enough from day one, and I fear we are going to pay the price, but not until much after the people of Iraq and Syria pay a much more costly price.

Whats to stop ISIS, Al Quaeda, or whomever to buy IQD on the hope it will, one day, be worth more?  That is something that's always concerned be from day one.  If we've heard about it over here, surely they are aware too.

  One more logical reason to not believe Tony's BS about the Mosque announcements, scrolling RV info on TV screens, etc.  And also one more reason that I don't think this will ever happen....or at least the way we initially thought it would.  To good to be true....buy some of this pretty paper money and a few days later walk out of the bank rich.

Ssmith, I have wondered the same thing.  Why would they RV a currency that would help IS

I do not think they would either Ponee. But, depending on who gets a vote on it R V ing!